Honestly, if you're looking at the Horizon League standings right now, you might be a little confused. We’ve got Youngstown State, a team that usually breathes fire in January, sitting at a weirdly lukewarm 2-5 in the conference despite having a solid 9-9 overall record. Then you’ve got Green Bay. Under Doug Gottlieb—yeah, that Doug Gottlieb—the Phoenix are actually rising, currently holding a 5-2 conference mark and looking like a genuine problem for the rest of the league.
When these two meet on January 22, it isn’t just another mid-major game. It’s a collision of two programs moving in completely opposite directions.
The Doug Gottlieb Effect in Green Bay
Let’s be real for a second. When Green Bay hired Gottlieb, half the college basketball world rolled their eyes and the other half grabbed popcorn. A broadcaster jumping into a Division I head coaching gig? It felt like a gimmick.
But look at the numbers. Last year, this team was basically a basement dweller. Now, they’re 10-8 overall and sitting near the top of the Horizon. They aren’t doing it with high-flying dunks or 100-point games, either. They’re doing it with grit and some really smart transfer portal mining.
Marcus Hall has been the heartbeat. He’s putting up about 14.5 points and 5 rebounds a game, but it’s his versatility that kills you. He’s 6'6" but plays much bigger, and in Gottlieb’s system, he’s basically a Swiss Army knife. Then you have Justin Allen, the D-III transfer from Carnegie Mellon who once dropped 50 in a game. People wondered if that scoring would translate. While he’s not dropping 50 anymore, his ability to stretch the floor is exactly why Green Bay is 5-2 in the league.
The X-Factor: Preston Ruedinger
You can't talk about Green Bay without mentioning Preston Ruedinger. He’s the redshirt senior guard who just doesn’t make mistakes. He recently set a program record with 13 assists in a single game. In a league like the Horizon, where games are often won or lost on turnovers in the final four minutes, having a guy who handles the rock like Ruedinger is basically a cheat code.
What’s Going On with Youngstown State?
If you’re a Penguins fan, you’re probably frustrated. This team has the talent. They have the size. They even have the defense—ranking 2nd in the league in points allowed (71.2 PPG). So why are they 2-5 in the conference?
Basically, they can’t close. They lost a heartbreaker to Oakland 85-83 on New Year's Day. They dropped another close one to Purdue Fort Wayne 71-69. They are right there, but the ball isn't bouncing their way.
The Cris Carroll Problem for Opponents
Despite the record, Cris Carroll is a nightmare to guard. He’s averaging over 17 points a game and is arguably the most physical forward in the conference. If Youngstown State is going to turn their season around against Green Bay, it has to start with Carroll asserting dominance in the paint.
- Bryson Dawkins needs to be the secondary threat. He’s shown flashes of being a 20-point-per-night guy, like he did against Oakland.
- Imanuel Zorgvol has to stay out of foul trouble. At 7-foot-0, he’s the only true rim protector the Penguins have. When he’s on the bench, the paint becomes a layup line.
- The bench depth. Youngstown gets almost nothing from their rotation players some nights. That has to change.
History Says Expect a Grinder
If you look at the historical matchup between Youngstown St vs Green Bay, it’s remarkably lopsided in the long run but tight lately. Green Bay leads the all-time series 37-21, but YSU has actually won the last few meetings, including an 81-77 win last February.
But this isn't last year's Green Bay.
The Phoenix are currently shooting 47.9% from the floor as a team, which is 2nd in the Horizon. Youngstown State, meanwhile, is holding opponents to just 43.3% shooting. It’s the classic "unstoppable force meets immovable object" scenario, just with more cornfields and cold weather.
Key Stats to Watch
- Turnovers: Green Bay is elite at taking care of the ball. Youngstown State thrives on forcing mistakes. Whoever wins the turnover battle by +3 likely wins the game.
- The Three-Ball: Neither of these teams is "Golden State" from deep. They both hover around 34-35%. If one team gets hot and hits 10+ threes, it’s over.
- Home Court: Youngstown plays at the Beeghly Center. It’s a tough place to play, and Green Bay has traditionally struggled on the road this season (1-6 record).
Why This Game Matters for the Standings
Right now, the Horizon League is a mess. Wright State is leading the pack, but Green Bay is nipping at their heels. A win for the Phoenix keeps them in the hunt for a top-2 seed and a first-round bye in the tournament.
For Youngstown State, this is about survival. If they fall to 2-6 or 2-7 in the conference, they’re looking at a road game in the first round of the playoffs. That is a death sentence. They need to protect the Beeghly Center and prove that their defensive metrics actually lead to wins.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you’re following this game or looking to place a wager, keep these things in mind:
- Watch the Injury Report: Both teams have dealt with nagging injuries to rotation guards. If Ruedinger or Nelson is out, the offensive flow disappears.
- Fade the Road Team? Green Bay’s road record (1-6) is ugly. Even though they are the "better" team in the standings, the Vegas line will likely favor Youngstown St because of the home-court advantage.
- The Under Might Be the Play: Both teams pride themselves on half-court execution. Don't expect a track meet.
- Check the Paint Points: If YSU's Zorgvol and Carroll combine for more than 30 points in the paint, Green Bay usually doesn't have the size to respond.
The Youngstown St vs Green Bay rivalry might not get the national headlines of Duke vs UNC, but for anyone who knows mid-major basketball, this is as high-stakes as it gets in January. Keep an eye on the guard matchup—it’s going to be a battle of wills.
To stay ahead of the curve, keep a close eye on the Horizon League's official stat page for live updates on shooting percentages leading up to tip-off, as these teams are currently separated by the thinnest of margins in efficiency.
