Don't trust early election night numbers in California. It's a lesson political rookies learn the hard way, and right now, Spencer Pratt is getting a brutal masterclass in how West Coast democracy actually works.
On election night, the former reality TV star turned Republican candidate looked like a lock to face incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in the November runoff. He held an eight percentage point lead over progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman. His supporters were celebrating. Pratt even went on X to boast about his path forward, declaring he felt confident and was ready for whatever happened next.
Then the actual counting started.
Over five days, that massive lead vanished. By Sunday evening, the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder dropped a fresh batch of numbers that completely flipped the script. Raman didn't just close the gap. She blew past him.
Currently, with 83% of the expected vote counted, Raman sits in second place with 196,198 votes (27.1%). Pratt has slid to third with 193,085 votes (26.7%). Karen Bass remains comfortably on top with 34.7%, but the real war is for that crucial second-place ticket to November. Raman now leads by roughly 3,113 votes, representing a massive 43,000-vote swing against Pratt since Tuesday night.
The Blue Shift and Why Post-Election Clinging Never Works
If you're wondering how someone loses a 40,000-vote lead in less than a week without a single new ballot being cast, it comes down to California election law.
The state runs a heavily mail-in system. Ballots just have to be postmarked by Election Day, and the county can legally count them up to seven days after the polls close. This creates a predictable phenomenon political scientists call the blue shift.
Early returns usually favor older, more conservative voters who drop off their ballots early or vote in person. The late-arriving mail-in ballots skew heavily toward younger, progressive, and Democratic voters. In a city like Los Angeles, those late dumps are historically a goldmine for progressives.
Raman's campaign team knew this. While the Pratt camp was treating early leads like a final score, political analysts were warning that an inflection point was coming. Over the weekend, Raman absolutely dominated the new ballot batches, taking roughly 40% of the Sunday data dump compared to Pratt's abysmal 18%.
Tensions Rise Over the Slow Count
Predictably, the shifting tides have triggered intense political friction. The slow counting process in California always draws fire from the right, but this cycle has reached a boiling point.
Bill Essayli, a Trump-linked First Assistant U.S. Attorney and the top federal prosecutor in Los Angeles, announced earlier in the week that he's investigating potential evidence of election fraud in the state. He publicly accused California officials of blocking a federal audit of its voter rolls.
While Pratt's campaign points to these investigations as a reason to question the sudden shift, election officials emphasize that this pacing is normal. Processing hundreds of thousands of mail-in signatures takes time, and the steady gain for progressive candidates mirrors almost every major local election cycle over the last decade.
Raman, an urban planner with degrees from Harvard and MIT, is no stranger to tough election dynamics. She made history in 2020 as the first South Asian woman elected to the L.A. City Council, pulled off a historic upset against an incumbent, and won her second council term in March 2024. She entered the mayoral race late without deep institutional backing, relying instead on a highly mobilized progressive volunteer base.
What This Means for Karen Bass
While Raman and Pratt fight for survival, Karen Bass is watching from a very comfortable position. With nearly 35% of the vote locked up, her spot in the November runoff is guaranteed.
But her strategy changes completely depending on who places second.
If Pratt somehow claws his way back, Bass gets an easy target. Facing a registered Republican and former reality television personality in deep-blue Los Angeles is an incumbent Democrat's dream scenario. It allows Bass to frame the entire general election around national partisan lines.
If Raman holds her lead, the race becomes an ideological civil war within the Democratic family. Bass will have to defend her record against a sharp progressive critique from the left, focusing heavily on the city's handling of homelessness, affordable housing, and climate mandates. Raman's campaign has already signaled it will push Bass hard on the slow pace of municipal reforms.
Track the Next Tally
Don't expect an official concession or victory party just yet. With 17% of the total vote still sitting in bags at the registrar's office, the margin is narrow enough that a sudden stabilization in the remaining ballots could theoretically help Pratt. However, the trajectory heavily favors Raman.
If you want to keep tabs on who actually secures the final runoff spot, bookmark the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder website. They release updated vote tallies every afternoon around 4:00 PM PST. Watch the percentage growth of the remaining uncounted ballots; if Raman keeps pulling 40% of the daily drops, this race will be called before the weekend.
Los Angeles Mayor Race Analysis
This video tracks the changing margins between the candidates as local reporters break down how late-arriving mail ballots shifted the momentum away from the early leader.
